PETER J.F. GOMMERS¹, BOGDAN COMANITA²
1. Peter4Strategy, Oegstgeest, Netherlands 
2. MarketChemica Inc., Toronto, Canada

Abstract

No one knows what the future holds but Investors and Executives still need to make long term decisions. Some choose to extrapolate the past. In retrospect, landslide events like the dot com recession, the housing bubble and the financial crisis proved them wrong. More recent events such as Brexit, the Sino-American rift and the US elections add to an already strained situation caused by the COVID crisis. It is possible that the latter are the harbingers of a less globalized economy. CDMOs need to consider the opportunities and threats associated with this scenario. The article develops a framework for exploring contingency strategy planning in a less globalized world for CDMOs.

INTRODUCTION

Globalization of the economy over the last decades was driven by the free movement of capital, labour, goods and services. Free markets were facilitated by more international openness with less capital controls, more travel, lower tariffs, open education & legal systems. Better transport infrastructure (harbours, ships, air, rail), stronger financial institutions and spectacular progress in information technology and telecommunications further generated a paradigm shift in the way the world works. This resulted in a transformation of the Western economy dominated by services and a rapid industrialization of developing economies dominated by manufacturing. This has created a global division between makers and consumer of goods. There are increasing calls for the reshoring of the manufacturing in Western countries and the spectrum of protectionism looms over. This article examines the environment of business for the CDMO industry from a macro perspective. It concludes that the downside risk of the industry from a Western perspective has decreased as globalization has already reached its peak. The reshoring of the CDMO industry will however ...